BTC/USD – What should we expect in July and Aug?


Bitcoin broke the recent downtrend on the daily chart on Friday, Jun 29. This week, the bulls supported the last weekend bullish rally. How far can this rally continue? What are the possible targets? How can we trade this? Is this a relief rally before we continue the downtrend till we hit lower levels at $4,970 levels? In this article, we try to answer these questions. We expect the current move continues in the following weeks in July. We observed good volumes and the OBV oscillator on the daily chart broke the overhead downward trend line which indicates a bullish scenario for bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in July. There are some rumors on social media. 85,000 Bitcoin has been transferred from a wallet. The rumors say it is the wallet of a Chinese whale who wants to sell his holdings in the bullish market. It makes sense, sell when everyone is buying. Smart traders won’t trade all single ups and downs. They wait till they find a good entry. Good trades can be found by studying the significant resistance and support levels

What are the support levels?

In the bearish viewpoint, BTC has support at $6,250 – $6,500 levels. Just below it, we have $5,750 – $6,000 levels as the current market structure. Retesting this area again is a bearish signal and it indicates that bears are insisting to break it. Usually, the market structure shouldn’t be tested more than three times in a bearish market. So, if BTC goes down to that level again for the fourth time, it is less likely to hold. The $5,750 is the 21-bar moving average on the monthly chart. It is usually a strong support and indicates a good buy opportunity. The monthly candle for June closed above it and I won’t be excited for a bullish reversal as long as the monthly candle in July is below $7,777.

What are the resistance levels?

At the time of writing the report, BTC is retesting $6,800 levels as a strong resistance. Just above it, BTC faces $7,040 level which was the swing low back in May. We have to wait and see if BTC can close on the daily chart above $6,800 levels. That can be considered as a bullish signal. why? because Breaking the overhead resistance is considered a bullish signal. In this case, BTC will target $7,500 levels where it will be challenged by the 55-bar weekly moving average. The resistance zone can be extended to $7,500 levels where the 55-bar daily moving average lies. BTC needs to close in the monthly candle in July above $7,777 to signal the bullish movement will continue in Aug.

See the BTCUSD – Weekly Chart for illustration:


Disclaimer: The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only, and should not be misconstrued as investment advice. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities.