Bitcoin’s Bear Market Could Last Another Year and a Half, Says BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes

Arthur Hayes, the CEO of cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX, has recently stated the cryptocurrency bear market could last another year and a half, based on his experience from the bear market BTC went through years ago.

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Speaking to Yahoo Finance UK, Hayes noted that he entered the bitcoin world in 2013, when its price was at around $250, and quickly surged to $1,300. Then, in 2014 and 2015, after the collapse of the then dominant cryptocurrency exchange Mt Gox, he noted it “was sort of the nuclear bear market.”

Per his words, both the price and volume crashed, making it “very, very difficult to make money.” As for the current bear market, he said:

My view is the volatility environment that exists right now could persist for another 12 to 18 months, the flatness.

The cryptocurrency space has been in a bear market since late last year. The price of bitcoin, the flagship cryptocurrency, dropped from a near $20,000 all-time high to about $6,300 at press time.

Hayes, a former Deutsche Bank and Citi trader, was speaking to Yahoo Finance UK at an event in London, organized by the Spectator Magazine. He co-founded BitMEX in 2014, and revealed he believes current market conditions can get even worse, as trading volumes could fall further.

While leading cryptocurrency exchanges like Binance and Huobi now rarely trade over $1 billion on a daily basis – a figure that was common earlier this year – as the volatility drops, BitMEX is still seeing large volumes.

In fact, it traded a record 1 million BTC in 24 hours earlier this year, at the time worth about $8 billion. Per Hayes, the derivatives exchange is “well positioned to weather the low volatility.” Addressing reports that revealed crypto exchanges have been laying off employees during the market’s downturn, he added:

There are some reports of other OTC dealers and exchanges letting go of employees because obviously volumes have fallen and they hired aggressively. Our expansion plans have not changed, we continue to hire across the whole organisation and we have the balance sheet resources to continue that activity

Bullish on Bitcoin

Will Warren Bitcoin Prediction: Long-term trend will be greater adoption of bitcoin

While Hayes believes the bear market is set to last for a while, he has in the past claimed bitcoin will reach $50,000. Yahoo Finance also spoke to other analysts who are bullish on cryptocurrencies like bitcoin.

Will Warren, the co-founder of decentralized crypto exchange protocol 0x, noted he’s seen a number of cycles where “a large number of people start to get interested in the technology and it kind of winds up and then winds down again.” He added:

The market is blowing off some steam right now. I think the market is probably going through some healthy consolidation but I do believe the long-term trend will be greater adoption of bitcoin and similar technologies

Mati Greenspan, a senior analyst at eToro, noted that in 2016 the gains started coming gradually before snowballing, and that now “that awareness and education have skyrocketed,” things might “happen a lot quicker next time.”

CEO OF LARGEST CRYPTO EXCHANGE BELIEVES THE BITCOIN BEARS ARE HERE TO STAY
BitMEX CEO, Arthur Hayes believes bears have the stamina to keep control of the crypto market for at least 18 months longer.

HAYES FORECASTS PROLONGED THUNDERSTORMS
Arthur Hayes, the captain at the helm of the world’s largest cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX believes bears could maintain control of the cryptocurrency market for at least another 18 months. Of course, these comments are rather interesting considering they come from the man accused of openly encouraging traders to short Ethereum on his own exchange — but please pardon the digression.

In a recent interview with Yahoo Finance UK, Hayes explained, “My view is the volatility environment that exists right now could persist for another 12 to 18 months, the flatness.” Haynes is convinced that trading volumes could weaken further — and while past performance is not proof of future results, Hayes opined that “I’m just basing it off my previous experience. I started in Bitcoin in 2013 when the price went from $250 to $1,300 and then from 2014 to 2015 was sort of the nuclear bear market.”

WILL CRYPTO CONSOLIDATE OR CAPITULATE?
While Hayes is not alone in his bearish point of view, there are plenty of analysts who believe cryptocurrencies are on the verge of a bull market. Ox decentralized exchange co-founder, Will Warren countered that since he started following cryptocurrencies in 2011 there have been a number of fast and slow cycles and he believes “[…]the market is blowing off some steam right now [before] going through some healthy consolidation.”

eToro Analyst, Mati Greenspan also believes the upcoming bull market will stack on gains quickly as people now have more “awareness and education” about cryptocurrency.

THERE’S ALWAYS A SILVER LINING… FOR EXCHANGES.
In spite of Hayes’s dismal view of crypto-market performance in 2019-2020, BitMEX continues to trade contracts with a notional $1 billion daily. This year the exchange notched a new daily record of $8.5 billion in contracts written. Somehow Hayes, who earlier in the interview said, “Price crashed, volume crashed, very, very difficult to make money,” concurrently believes that BitMEX is “well positioned to weather the low volatility.”

Do you think Arthur Hayes is right about his 18-months of additional bearish markets prediction? Share your thoughts in the comments below!

Arthur Hayes Bitcoin Price Prediction May 2018

CNBC’s Seema Mody reports on the world’s largest bitcoin conference and Arthur Hayes, BitMEX CEO, discusses his outlook for the cryptocurrency on May 2018.