Robert Shiller, the economics professor at the Yale University, stated that although he believes that there is a 50% of chance that the recession will take place in the next 18 months, talking about recession and pushing this idea into the markets may only bring it sooner than expected.
Speaking for CNBC’s “Trading Nation”, professor Shiller further added that although President Trump is one of the crucial parts of the bull run that previously took place, it is not excluded that Donald J. Trump may likewise enter major trouble due to the legal obligations.
The fact that the deficit in the US budget is also growing at a rapid pace, is not contributing to postponing or diminishing factors that could keep the recession away from the US markets.
50% Chance That The Recession Will Come Onto The Stage
Although professor Robert Shiller stated for CNBC that he considers that there is a 50% chance that the recession will come onto the stage, which should take place in the course of the next 18 months, Shiller also added that the recession is more likely to arrive sooner in 2019 in case reports continue to encourage the idea of recession.
Shiller explained that even though the profit taxes have been declined by President Trump alongside having the US President encouraging entrepreneurship through business support, the growing deficit in the budget of the United States can become a major problem.
As Shiller explains, the deficit grew by 77% higher in oppose to the period of the last year, now counting 913 billion dollars according to the fiscal reports published on January.
At the same time, it is also considered that the issue with the budget deficit is set to become more serious by the time 2022 arrives, as the Congressional Budget Office warns that the deficit might grow to astonish 1 trillion dollars.
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